Serbia votes – what do you need to know?
Jakub Krupa
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Serbia’s strongman Aleksandar Vučić faces the strongest challenge to his 12-year rule in the country, as grassroots protest movement led by Serbia’s students hopes to oust him from office in snap parliamentary elections (17:31).
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The vote comes after nearly two years of widespread protests against alleged government and institutional corruption, triggered by a railway disaster in 2024 (17:42).
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Critics say Vučić, a former information minister of Slobodan Milošević, deploys nationalist playbook in domestic politics, while keeping close ties with Russia and China (17:14) and not making progress on Serbia’s path towards the European Union (17:48).
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The election takes place amid tense atmosphere with partial turnout data pointing to unprecedented voter mobilisation (18:32, 18:58) amid allegations of electoral irregularities with a record-high number of observers following the vote (18:00, 19:11).
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Polls close at 8pm (7pm UK), with first projections expected later tonight, around 9.30pm (8.30pm UK; 18:34, 18:42).
Key events
Polls close across Serbia
So, that’s done.
Now, the wait begins.
As explained earlier, we are expecting first projections – based on what both groups claim are representative samples of polling stations – to drop a bit later, around 9.30pm local time, so 8.30pm UK (18:42)
Jakub Krupa
The polls are theoretically closing in under five minutes now – but anyone standing in the queue at 8pm Serbian time will still be able to cast their votes even a bit later.
So, if you are somewhere in the world, waiting in that queue, and reading our blog – don’t lose your spot.
CeSID/Ipsos project turnout of 67.6% at 7pm
The latest data from CeSID and Ipsos projects national turnout at 67.6% as of 7pm – once again pointing towards an exceptionally high final figure.
Vučić voters still back him against students
Ana Milosavljevic
in Belgrade
Meanwhile, Vučić voters defended his track record in government, insisting he “has accomplished what nobody else could have.”
Olga, 85, insisted that “he has done more than anyone could have.”
She added she respected the student movement, and “hoped that because of them things will be better tomorrow,” but insisted that “for now, it seems to me that there is no one better than Vučić.”
But Siniša, 68, said he “could barely bring myself to vote” as he was “really, really fed up” with politics in the country – but still supported Vučić.
“Others are pretty weak, to be completely honest.”
He said he would “absolutely not” support the students, as he characterised them as “not a serious bunch” and implied they were part of some sort of foreign interference in the election process. “I am almost certain of it,” he insisted.
Opposition voters see election as referendum on Vučić and chance to change Serbia
Ana Milosavljevic
in Belgrade
Many voters the Guardian spoke to emphasised that this year’s electoral choice really as simple as choosing between the establishment and what they see is a promise of a functioning state that respects the rule of law.
Stevan, 72, said that in his view ““a particular class of people has emerged, people who are close to those in power, who get all the contracts, who can do anything, who are allowed to do anything, and who have become extremely wealthy.”
Meanwhile, he said, “Serbia’s greatest asset is those young, educated people who, because of their circumstances, have gone abroad.”
“I meet a lot of these bright young people who live abroad, and when they come back here, they have so many ideas, but they don’t have the opportunity to prove themselves,” he said.
He added that he had grown disillusioned with western countries for “constantly treating us like some Russian province, never actually giving us any concrete support, never really investing in Serbia so that the country can start moving forward.”
“Instead, it’s always hot and cold, hot and cold. I used to be completely 100 percent pro-Europe. Now I’m completely indifferent, and I don’t even believe in it anymore. They keep lying to us. We’re not fools.”
Despite SNS’s stranglehold on power and previous electoral victories marred by irregularities, many voters were convinced that this year they have a chance to unseat former president Vučić.
Nikola, 35, said “people usually have this problem where they feel there’s no alternative.” He credited the student-movement for changing that mentality:
“Now there’s a concrete alternative, centered around people who have actually made an effort to do something.”
But asked about what could come next, he said:
“Oh God, I don’t know. I genuinely don’t know. Since yesterday we’ve been sitting around talking about what’s going to happen, how things will unfold, what comes next. I don’t even know what’s going to happen if they do win. Nobody knows.”
Serbian election sees highest turnout since breakup of Yugoslavia, partial data show
The latest turnout data from 6pm – this time from the electoral commission – show once again that we are on course for unprecedented final numbers today.
With 64.9% by 6pm it is already the highest turnout since the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1992.
The polling closes 8pm local time, in just under 40 minutes.
The only two elections with a higher turnout were in 1990 (71.4%) and 1992 (69.7%).
Serbia votes – what do you need to know?
Jakub Krupa
-
Serbia’s strongman Aleksandar Vučić faces the strongest challenge to his 12-year rule in the country, as grassroots protest movement led by Serbia’s students hopes to oust him from office in snap parliamentary elections (17:31).
-
The vote comes after nearly two years of widespread protests against alleged government and institutional corruption, triggered by a railway disaster in 2024 (17:42).
-
Critics say Vučić, a former information minister of Slobodan Milošević, deploys nationalist playbook in domestic politics, while keeping close ties with Russia and China (17:14) and not making progress on Serbia’s path towards the European Union (17:48).
-
The election takes place amid tense atmosphere with partial turnout data pointing to unprecedented voter mobilisation (18:32, 18:58) amid allegations of electoral irregularities with a record-high number of observers following the vote (18:00, 19:11).
-
Polls close at 8pm (7pm UK), with first projections expected later tonight, around 9.30pm (8.30pm UK; 18:34, 18:42).
EU ‘deeply concerned about reported violent incidents’ in Serbia, ambassador says
Meanwhile, there are some first diplomatic reactions to reported incidents at some polling stations across Serbia.
The EU’s ambassador to Serbia Andreas von Beckerath said on X:
“We are deeply concerned about reported violent incidents across a number of polling stations. Serbian citizens need to be able to exercise their democratic right to vote in a peaceful and safe environment.
We call on all actors to remain calm, to act responsibly and refrain from violence and provocations and on the competent institutions to ensure safety of all involved in the electoral process.”
The US Republican senator Joe Wilson also said on X:
“As the Serbian people take to the polls in historic numbers, I am deeply concerned by reports that the government is potentially preparing to use violence against citizens aimed at obstructing the voting process.
Such attacks are totally unacceptable. I urge Serbia to remain peaceful!”
Up to three-hour wait at the Serbian embassy in London as Serbs in UK turn out to vote
Jakub Krupa
It was a sunny, if chilly and extremely windy day in London, but none of that seems to have mattered much for the thousands of determined Serbians who turned out to vote at the embassy in Belgravia.
By late lunchtime, the queue stretched hundreds of metres, winding around the elegant blocks of buildings in the embassy district.
Voters near the front reported waiting between two and three hours to cast their vote. Some had travelled from as far afield as Bristol, Cambridge, and Manchester.
“Everyone walking to the queue is like, oh, the queue is long, but with a smile on their faces. It’s amazing,” Jovan, 26, said.
Milica, 27, agreed: “I am very happy seeing how many people turned up. I don’t think this was ever the case before.”
“Everyone is happy; for the first time we see people being happy about being in a long queue.”
Both felt today could mark “a start” for something new in Serbia, though Milica voiced concern over how the government might react to the result.
“I am hoping it goes down smoothly tonight [and] there are no conflicts or other incidents. Knowing the government and how things were going during the previous elections, I think there is a chance there might be some trouble today in Serbia,” she said.
Filip, 27, was notably more optimistic: “I feel freedom in the air. I am really excited. I can’t wait to see the results and hope they will be what I am feeling here [in the queue],” he said.
“I am talking to my family in my home town, my friends in Belgrade, everybody is doing something, is excited. It’s amazing,” he added.
Asked what a potential defeat for Aleksandar Vučić would mean to him, he paused for a moment. “It means we will finally breathe,” he said.
“It feels like we do not have any control or freedom in our own country and people are struggling in every field. It [a possible opposition win] will not fix everything, all of our issues, but it will be an amazing beginning of our future.”
Record-high number of diaspora voters take part in Serbian election
Back to Serbia, a record-high number of over 100,000 people, three times as many as in 2023, registered to vote abroad, but a quirk in the way the overseas vote is organised means that some of them had to cast their votes, erm, at night.
Serbia’s electoral commission has tied voting hours to the local time in Serbia, meaning the voters in the US, Canada or Australia needed additional alarm clocks.
13 polling stations fall victim of this rather unusual arrangement, with voters in Chicago – home to a large Serbian community – forced to vote between 1am and 2pm, and in Sydney between 5pm and 6am. Some of them held impromptu parties as they waited because why not.
The move sparked controversy and accusations of making it difficult for likely opposition voters to cast their ballots, as the tight margins this year suggest that every vote may count.
For example, 28 of the 93 overseas polling stations are in neighbouring Bosnia, where Vučić is particularly popular. In contrast, the US has only four stations, and Canada – two, pushing some voters to make trips of thousands of kilometres to cast their votes.
Radev’s former vice-president Iotova leads in Bulgarian presidential election ahead of runoff, exit polls show
By the way, Serbia is not the only country hosting elections today or this weekend.
In the last hour, the polls closed in Bulgaria where voters choose the new president filling the post vacated by populist leader Rumen Radev, who resigned earlier this year to stand in parliamentary elections and take over as prime minister (sort of what Vučić is hoping for).
The presidential race pits the acting president and Radev’s former vice-president Iliana Iotova, who would be Bulgaria’s first (elected) female president, against pro-European former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, with a crowded field of 25 other candidates also on the ballot.
Alpha Research’s exit poll from Bulgaria puts Iotova in the pole position after today’s vote, with 35.3% of the vote, just narrowly ahead of Gyurov at 32.4%.
A second exit poll, conducted by Myara research institute, showed similar numbers, with Iotova at 35.2% and Gyurov at 32.2%.
Assuming these numbers are correct, since none of them got the required 50% of the vote, the pair will advance to a runoff next Sunday.
The vote comes at a critical time given the worsening security situation in Ukraine and just days after a series of drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea, including off Bulgaria’s coast.
Unreliable pre-election polls and projections from samples – what are we going to know and when?
Jakub Krupa
Somewhat unusually, we will have to rely on vibes a lot this evening (and over the night, as the vote count progress) as … there isn’t much to go by in terms of reliable data on polling intentions.
Polls are infrequent and show wildly different results, with critics and cynics (you know who you are) saying that they essentially depend on who pays for them or who is the pollster closer to. Whatever the cause, they definitely show all sorts of results.
And so, the final poll done by Ipsos Strategic Marketing (sic!), declared to be paid by Vučić’s list, showed that they are on course for a fairly convincing victory, with 47.4% of the vote, well ahead of the Student List with 40%.
Faktor plus’s polls from September also point to a Vučić win.
But a separate poll by NSPM conducted earlier this month put the Students narrowly – less than 2pp – ahead. To complicate matters further, the Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability’s research from a few months back now gives them an even wider lead, nearing 10pp.
Oh, and to complicate matters further, the polls showed that a not insignificant part of the electorate was still undecided as late as this week.
So, good luck, we are on our own.
We are going to get two projections (note: not exit polls, but based on data from selected polling stations), which are likely to come out around the same time, 9.30/10pm local time (8.30/9pm UK).
That’s the CeSID/Ipsos and CRTA data, based on what they see in their respective samples, as explained in the previous post.
It is not inconceivable that we may end up getting different or outright contradictory suggestions about the result of today’s vote in these projections. Let’s see.
Given we are expecting the result to be fairly close and potentially contested by one or both sides, this all creates perfect conditions for a messy night ahead.
Ultimately, obviously, we will look at the official results, but if they are super close and get contested with recounts, this may take a while.
This will make our work somewhat difficult tonight and will guide us in making cautious calls on the result, but I will try to do my best to guide you through it.
Jakub Krupa
We are essentially getting three different sets of figures tonight: from the electoral commission, from election watchers CeSID and pollster Ipsos, and from another group of election watchers CRTA.
The electoral commission’s data are naturally the most complete, with the latter two groups using their samples – of 750 and 500 polling stations across the country – to report “projected” turnout on that basis.
And to make things easier to follow, they also report at slightly different intervals.
Eh.
We will need to navigate the three throughout the night, so let me explain this a bit further, using the example of pre-election day polling.
